mojo city bird flu

Is using the
50% kill-rate
irresponsible
fear-mongering?.

a consideration of the coming disaster, by Cody Barstow, Ph.D., (and fence rider for the Barstow Ranch)

Bird Flu.

Here are the statistics.

The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic killed 20-50 million people in the world, about three percent of the world population. This is not the same as "three percent of those infected," so it cannot be directly compared to Bird Flu's 50 percent death rate for those infected. Thanks, Will. (Bird flu could have the ferocity of a global war, by Robert Bazell, Correspondent, NBC News, Updated: 1:26 p.m. ET Nov. 9, 2005, @ http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9975412/).
The current Bird Flu/H5N1 has infected about 126 people, with 66 fatalities ... a mortality rate of more than 50 percent of those infected (from WHO, cited in, Bird flu around the world: a guide, by James Sturcke, Wednesday November 16, 2005, @ http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/ 0,14207,1595868,00.html.
Bazell also notes that no one has any natural immunity to the current Bird Flu variety.
[boldface is this author's addition.]

These are the real numbers, as well developed as we can at this point in time. Actual surveillance of other countries and their infection rates cannot be certified by anyone, so numbers may be higher.

There is the possibility that as this virus mutates to a human-to-human version, it may become less lethal. In essence, it gives up its lethality in order to be able to infect more people and be carried by more people, rather than killing its victims quickly at a high rate.

While this may have happened in the past with other viruses, there is no reason to believe it must necessarily happen in this case. To hope for such an outcome of a lower kill-rate is an unsupported hope at this point, and is in fact, the real irresponsibility.

One reason we should not hope for a lower kill-rate is that this has not necessarily happened within the bird population. A recent infection of the British bird-import quarantine facilities killed, like the human toll, more than 50 percent of the infected species.

The final fact is, Bird Flu has killed more than 50 percent of its human victims and has shown no signs of becoming less lethal.

Note that one commentator believes that the death rate has actually increased to about 70 percent. The source, however, may be questionable to some readers. Decide for yourself @ http://rwor.org/a/023/avian-flu-pandemic-world.htm

***

Taking Direct Action

How we beat this thing.

9 out of 10 infected kids in Thailand died from Bird Flu.

Is using the 50% kill-rate irresponsible fear-mongering?

What else can be done?